This Week in Auto Racing August 22 - August 26

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/22/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR's traditional late summer Saturday night shootout at the Bristol Motor Speedway highlights a busy week at the race track.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

Sharpie 500 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

It took three days, but for Kurt Busch the race at Michigan was worth the wait. The 2004 Nextel Cup champion solidified his hold on the 12th and final spot in the "Chase for the Nextel Cup."

"This was an unbelievable performance for my Pat Tryson-led Miller Lite Dodge team and they deserve the credit," said Busch. "You know, I've got to thank the fans who stuck it out on a Tuesday to see a green-white-checker. We put it on for them here at the end, all the restarts, all of the guys on different strategy, it really was a tough, hard-fought win."

Busch has built his lead from 96 points before the race to 163 points over Dale Earnhardt Jr. and 171 over his Penske Racing teammate Ryan Newman. His second win in the last three races also means that should he make the "Chase" he would start with the fourth-highest total. Only Jeff Gordon (four wins), Jimmie Johnson (four) and Tony Stewart (three) would begin the 10-race "playoffs" with more points.

And even better news for Busch is that this week's event is at the Bristol Motor Speedway, a track where the Las Vegas native has had great success. In 13 career starts at BMS, Busch has one pole, five wins and eight top-10s. Between the spring of 2002 and the spring of 2004 he won four of five races and has led a total of 560 laps.

That's not quite as many as Gordon (active leader with 2,435) or Stewart (1,085), but it's better than Greg Biffle, Bill Elliott, Kevin Harvick or Newman.

Owner Roger Penske is also impressed with how Busch has rebounded from some early career problems. Although he still has to learn to control himself sometimes (ex: At Dover in June following a crash with Stewart, Busch drove into Stewart's car on pit road, nearly hitting a member of Stewart's team drawing a 100-point penalty and a $100,000 fine) he has become more of a team leader.

"I think Kurt appreciates what we're putting behind him," said Penske. "He certainly has demonstrated in the last (few) races how good he really is. I think he's at the top of his game. We hung with him when he was down, facedown quite honestly... The team has stood behind him and certainly you can see what has turned out to be a terrific team and some great success to date."

Busch will likely have to fight with Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Harvick for another win this week and the all-important 10 playoff points that a win is worth.

Gordon, like Busch, owns five Bristol wins. He also has finished in the top-10 an amazing 18 times in 29 starts. Kenseth has earned two wins and nine top-10s in 15 career starts around the 0.533-mile oval. Harvick has one win and nine top-10s in 13 starts and an average finish of 10.1, best among the drivers currently in the "Chase."

As always when you try and shoehorn 43 cars onto the high-banked, half-mile oval at Bristol expect to see plenty of bent sheetmetal and frustrated drivers. It makes for great racing.

Busch

Food City 250 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

The Busch Series continues to trudge through the long season with Carl Edwards dominating from beginning to end. At least in the driver category.

In the owner's championship, the race is much, much closer. While Edwards leads Kevin Harvick in the driver standings by 700 points, the battle between the No.60 Roush Fenway Racing Ford and the No.29 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet is a different story.

After last week, the combination of Jeff Burton and Scott Wimmer driving the No.29 Chevy is actually ahead of Edwards' No.60. The No.29 team was more than 300 points behind the No.60 following the second race at Nashville Superspeedway in June, but has made up all the ground and now leads by 40 points.

The No.29 took the lead last week after Edwards was spun out by Reed Sorenson and wound up 28th. Meanwhile, Burton finished fourth. The strong run was Burton's ninth top-five and 12th top-10 finish in just 13 starts this season.

"Scott (Wimmer) has done a great job for us," said Burton. "It's still a long way to go but we're having a lot of fun with it. With all of the pressure on the No.60, and having such a big lead in the driver point standings, nobody expected us to be in it. We're just having fun and Richard (Childress) wants us to win the owners championship in the worst way and we want to win it in the worst way."

Obviously, with the drivers championship pretty much already decided, it will be the only race worth watching.

Craftsman

O'Reilly 200 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

"Race leader Mike Skinner" is a phrase used quite often this season. The driver of the No.5 Toyota truck has led at least one lap in the last 19 races dating back to the Atlanta Motor Speedway in October 2006.

Skinner led 102 laps in the last Craftsman Truck Series race at the Nashville Superspeedway pushing him over the 1,000-miles led mark in 2007. It is the fifth time in the series the feat has been accomplished and the second time for Skinner, who did it in 1996. Skinner finished third in 1996 and is determined to finish a couple of positions higher this season.

Skinner has led the most laps in seven races this year while leading the series in points (2,521), winnings ($526,850), wins (4), poles (8), top-fives (12) and top-10s (14). He also leads Ron Hornaday Jr. by 82 points.

Wednesday's race will present a different challenge than usual at the 0.533- mile, high-banked, Bristol Motor Speedway short track. In addition to the traditional problems that BMS entails there is the added feature of a newly paved race track.

Teams tested there in July, but it will still be the first NASCAR race on the track since it was repaved.

"They did a nice job, the track looks different, but it's really the same Bristol - and that's a good thing," said Ted Musgrave's crew chief Rick Gay Jr.

In the test, Travis Kvapil was quickest at 119.626 m.p.h., while Musgrave was second fastest.

"The team did a great job working through our test plan," Kvapil said. "They hit on some things towards the end of the day that found us some more speed."

Kvapil (-236) sits third in the championship after winning the last race at Nashville.

"It was pretty awesome," said Kvapil in the post-race press conference. "It took our K&N Ford half the race to get the track position and the right adjustment in it. This is the truck we won with in Michigan and finished second in Kentucky with."

It was Kvapil's ninth consecutive top-10 and third win of the season. If Skinner and Hornaday Jr. weren't having such great seasons, Kvapil would be right in the middle of the battle, instead of just outside of it, looking in.

The good news, however, is there are still 10 races left and if Kvapil can keep up his current pace he can challenge Skinner and Hornaday Jr. for the championship.

INDYCARS

Motorola Indy 300 - Infineon Raceway - Sonoma, CA

Two races ago, Tony Kanaan was virtually a bystander in the championship race. He was 111 points behind teammate Dario Franchitti and 77 points behind Scott Dixon.

Worse, neither Franchitti nor Dixon had made a misstep all season and it looked as if the gap was too large to bridge.

The series traveled to the Michigan International Speedway and Kanaan collected his first win of the season. Better still, Dixon faltered with handling problems finishing 10th and Franchitti finished 13th after a frightening upside-down ride.

Two weeks ago Kanaan won his second consecutive race, at the Kentucky Speedway, while points leader Franchitti again struggled.

The series arrives this week at the road course in Sonoma, CA and Kanaan is just 52 points behind Franchitti and 44 out of second place. With just three races remaining on the schedules (Infineon, Belle Isle, Chicagoland) it is a three-horse race for the title.

But Kanaan will have to improve on last year when he ran 11th. Then 19-year- old Marco Andretti won the race edging Franchitti for the first win of his career. For Andretti it was all about fuel strategy and fuel conservation.

"My guys are the best in the business," said the son of Michael Andretti and grandson of Mario Andretti. "Their strategy was brilliant."

Kanaan will also have to best Dixon who has been superior over the last three years on road courses.

Dixon has won four times and collected nine top-10s in his last nine road course starts. In 2007 he has two wins (Mid-Ohio, Watkins Glen) and a second place on the streets of St. Petersburg.

It's a tall order, but if Kanaan wants to add a second crown to his trophy case, he will have to beat Dixon at his own game. So far Kanaan has finished third, fourth and fourth in three road course starts. Nice stats, but not enough.

Franchitti has finished fifth, third and second in three road course starts. Again, pretty good statistics, but given the likelihood of a Dixon win Franchitti could be looking up at the points leader by the end of the weekend.

One thing is for sure, it's a race you shouldn't miss.

CHAMP CARS

Champ Car Grand Prix of Belgium - Circuit Zolder - Zolder, Belgium

The Champ Car Series heads off on the European and Asian portion of the schedule, not returning to North America until mid-November. The series will begin with races in Belgium this weekend and Holland next Sunday. Then its off to Surfer's Paradise and China before finishing the season with an event in Mexico City and one in Phoenix.

Three-time series champion Sebastien Bourdais will bring a 37-point lead to the track at Zolder, Belgium - his largest of the season after a win at Road America. It was his second win in the last three events and coupled with a bad race by Robert Doornbos has allowed him to put some distance between himself and his primary rival for the championship.

The 2.622-mile road course will host a Champ Car event for the first time.

"Obviously it would be awesome to go back to Europe with the McDonald's team and get another couple of wins, but those tracks are a big unknown for us," said Bourdais. "I have never been to Zolder or Assen."

That hasn't seemed to bother the Frenchman in the past. Over the last four years, Champ Cars has used seven new venues and Bourdais won five times.

Doornbos has gone in the opposite direction at just the wrong time. After posting five consecutive top-10s, including a win at Mont-Tremblant, the Rotterdam, Netherlands native has finished outside the top-10 in two of the last three events. But he is excited to be headed back home.

"For Champ Car, it's their first time at Zolder, but not for me - I raced there seven years ago, in 2000," said Doornbos. "It's just great to drive in front of your home crowd, and for sure it gives you an extra boost that you need."

FORMULA ONE

Turkish Grand Prix - Istanbul Autodrom - Istanbul, Turkey

After a wild weekend in Hungary, where McLaren finished first and fourth but gained no manufacturer points because of a qualifying penalty, the series resumes this Sunday with a race in Istanbul, Turkey.

Despite the 15-point penalty, McLaren still has control of both the drivers and manufacturers championship. Behind super rookie Lewis Hamilton and two- time defending World Champion Fernando Alonso the team holds a 19-point edge for the manufacturers trophy. They also have a stranglehold on the drivers championship.

Hamilton, who has only once finished worse than third one time in 11 Formula One starts, owns a seven-point lead in the standings over teammate Alonso. His lead is 20 points over rival Ferrari's No.1 driver Kimi Raikkonen and 21 points over Felipe Massa, also of Ferrari.

Istanbul is a popular circuit for the drivers. It's fast with long straights. It has several different corner combinations including elevation changes and, of course, it has Turn Eight.

"It is probably the most difficult corner in the whole championship," said Renault's Giancarlo Fisichella.

Turn Eight is a long left-hander taken at about 150 m.p.h. which puts a lot of pressure on both driver and machine, particularly late in the race.

"The track is great to drive, with some sections that are really on the limit and what you want to race on as a driver, Turn Eight in particular,"said Alonso.

"It is a very physically demanding circuit, all the fast corners, such as Turn Eight which is awesome and flat out, and the heat place a big demand on the drivers," said Hamilton, who raced there in 2006 in the GP2 Series.

With six races left in the F1 season, McLaren's lead is not big enough that the team can relax.

In 2006, Massa won the Turkish Grand Prix finishing more than five seconds ahead of Alonso for his first Formula One victory.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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