Cubs win pitchers' duel to take series with Dodgers

Baseball Betting Lines

05/27/2010 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tyler Colvin's run-scoring double in the bottom of the eighth inning proved to be the only offense, as the Chicago Cubs edged the Los Angeles Dodgers, 1-0, in the rubber match of a three-game series at Wrigley Field.

Mike Fontenot, who replaced injured third baseman Jeff Baker (right eye), tripled to start the eighth and scored on Colvin's two-bagger for Chicago, which has won four of its last five and has lost only three times in the last 11 games overall.

Colvin had only one plate appearance, as he came in the game in the top of the eighth as part of a double switch

Ted Lilly worked seven solid innings but did not factor in the decision. The veteran left-hander scattered three hits, issued three walks and fanned five. Sean Marshall (5-1) picked up the win with a scoreless eighth. Carlos Marmol locked the game down in the ninth to record his 11th save of the season.

Casey Blake had two of the five hits for the Dodgers, who have dropped three of their last four but have still won 15 of the last 20 contests overall.

John Ely (3-2) was the hard-luck loser for allowing one run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings of work. The rookie righty, who was making his first career start against the Cubs, struck out four and walked a pair.

Starting pitching dominated from the outset, with both starters combining to allow only five hits over the first seven innings.

Marshall replaced Lilly in the top of the eighth and surrendered a pair of singles, leaving runners on first and second with one out. The left-hander settled down to retire Blake on a soft liner to second and got James Loney on a ground ball to second to end the threat.

In the bottom of the eighth, Fontenot tripled down the right field line, and two batters later Colvin hit a double just inside the first base bag that scored Fontenot, with Colvin taking third on an error by right fielder Xavier Paul.

Ely was then lifted in favor of Jeff Weaver, who set down Ryan Theriot on a pop up and fanned Starlin Castro.

Marmol took the hill for the ninth and issued a one-out walk to Blake DeWitt before striking out pinch-hitters Manny Ramirez and Garret Anderson to preserve the win.

Game Notes

Los Angeles took five of eight matchups with the Cubs a year ago and despite the loss has won eight of the past 14 meetings between the storied franchises...The Dodgers recalled right-handed pitcher Justin Miller from Triple-A Albuquerque prior to the game and designated veteran pitcher Ramon Ortiz for assignment.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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