Chris Paul's "Big Three" Fantasy May Be Just That

Basketball Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Paul is looking to follow in the footsteps of his good friend LeBron James and form his own trio of star players in the hopes of winning an NBA championship. The Hornets' talented point guard reportedly has told the club he wants to be traded and has given a wish list of four teams to which he'd like to be dealt. The Knicks top that list with the Magic being his second choice, followed by the Mavericks and Trailblazers.

I can't blame Paul for wanting to leave New Orleans to pursue a title, but he'll have a much more difficult time putting himself in the kind of position LeBron did in Miami since he's not a free agent like James was. In all likelihood, the exchange of talent it would take to acquire Paul would leave that team with a very weak supporting cast, and some clubs may not even have the players it will take to make the deal. Let's take a look at what the four teams face that are on Paul's wish list.

KNICKS: Paul would join Amar'e Stoudemire in New York, but that's where the good news would begin and end. A trade for Paul would leave the rest of the roster, which isn't very good at this point, even worse. The Big Apple may be his first choice, but I say it would be his worst choice if he hopes to win an NBA Championship.

MAGIC: I'm sure Dwight Howard would love to have Paul join him in Orlando and give him the chance to play with a point guard that actually makes other players better. But I have to wonder if the Magic have the pieces to pull off this deal. Other than Jameer Nelson, I don't see any other players that would be attractive to the Hornets. Even if the Magic were able to acquire Paul, they'd still be a long way from competing with the likes of the Lakers and Heat. After the Big Two of Howard and Paul, you're left with a supporting cast that's weaker than last year's that failed so badly in the playoffs.

MAVERICKS: The combination of Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki has produced some very good teams in Dallas, but zero NBA championships. Even though Paul would be a significant upgrade over the aging Kidd, it wouldn't be nearly enough to make Dallas serious title contenders.

TRAIL BLAZERS: Of the four teams reportedly on Paul's wish list, Portland has the best talent to make the deal, but once again would probably be left with a roster that wouldn't be in a position to contend for a championship.

QUICK DRIBBLES

It's a free agent signing that won't get much attention, but the Lakers made a terrific move with the addition of Matt Barnes. He's an excellent defender who can also knock down the open jump shot, and there should be plenty of those available playing with Kobe and Gasol.

The Heat re-signed free agent point guard Carlos Arroyo. "By re-signing Carlos, we feel we have accomplished another big step in adding to this team," Heat president Pat Riley said." A big step? I didn't realize bringing back a player that averaged 6.1 points and 3.1 assists in 22 minutes would elicit such a reaction.

Former Knicks guard Allan Houston reportedly is the front-runner to be the club's next general manager under team president Donnie Walsh. I guess owner James Dolan wants the Knicks to continue to be irrelevant by hiring a GM with no experience or track record.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.