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06/12/2010 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aric Almirola captured his second victory in the Camping World Truck Series by taking Saturday's VFW 200 at Michigan International Speedway.
Almirola took the lead for the first time with seven laps to go when he pulled ahead of Todd Bodine and Kyle Busch after they ran three-wide for the top spot. He held off several challenges from Bodine in the final laps before beating him at the finish by 0.111 seconds.
"Our [truck] was not as good as we wanted it to be in the beginning of the race, but [crew chief] Richie Wauters and the guys on our team did a really good job adjusting the truck all day long," Almirola said.
Almirola claimed his first victory in the series last month at Dover. He is driving the No.51 Toyota for Billy Ballew Motorsports full-time this year after he previously shared driving duties with Busch in that truck.
"What an awesome Billy Ballew Motorsports team; It's their first win at Michigan, so I finally did something Kyle didn't do," Almirola added.
Bodine led the most laps with 33, en route to his second place finish, while Busch ended up third in his No.18 Toyota. Busch is in his first year as driver and owner in the series.
"I suck at Michigan," Busch said. "Aric Almirola did it in the 51 [truck]. I've driven it for five years, and couldn't get it."
Four-time and defending series champion Ron Hornaday Jr. took the fourth spot. Austin Dillon, the pole sitter, overcame a pit-road penalty late in the race to settle for a fifth-place finish. Dillon left his stall with the gas can still attached to his car.
Timothy Peters, Jason White, David Starr, Elliott Sadler and Nelson Piquet Jr. completed the top-10.
With the win, Almirola moved to within 55 points of leader Bodine, who won last week at Texas.
After 38 of 100 laps were completed, NASCAR halted the race when a shower moved over the two-mile oval. It was delayed for 40 minutes before racing resumed.
<< Diamondbacks activate Montero from DL
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Arizona Diamondbacks have reinstated
catcher Miguel Montero from the 15-day disabled list.
The 26-year-old receiver was placed on the DL on April 11 with a right knee
sprain and underwent surger
<< England has more to worry about then just Green
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's safe to say that the English tabloids will come up
with all kinds of clever headlines to describe the horrendous goal that Robert
Green conceded in the Three Lion's 1-1 draw with the United States on Saturday
to open
<< Big 3 have been inconsistent for Celtics
BOSTON (AP) -When the Boston Celtics assembled their new Big Three in the summer of 2007, they suddenly had three different options on offense - too many for opponents to handle, it turned out, and the league's most-decorated franchise drove to its
<< Group C favorites England, USA battle to draw in Rustenburg
Rustenburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - England and the United States
battled to a 1-1 draw Saturday at Royal Bafokeng Stadium to open World Cup
Group C play for both teams.
England got a goal from midfielder Steven Gerrard in
Third straight pole for Logano at Kentucky >>
Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joey Logano remained perfect at Kentucky
Speedway by winning the pole for Saturday's Meijer 300 Nationwide Series race.
Logano smoked the competition with a blistering lap of 177.212 m.p.h. for his
four
Buehrle, White Sox slip past Cubs >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Buehrle pitched into the seventh inning
and a pair of Paul Konerko RBI singles gave the White Sox a 2-1 victory over
the crosstown rival Cubs.
Buehrle (4-6) fanned seven, failed to issue a walk and l
State Farm suspended for the day >>
Springfield, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Heavy rain and thunderstorms Saturday
forced the third round of the State Farm Classic to be suspended for the day.
The round will resume at 8:00 a.m. ET on Sunday at Panther Creek Country Club.
Cri
Nava hits grand slam as Red Sox rout Phillies >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Daniel Nava went 2-for-4 and hit a grand slam in
his first major-league at-bat as Boston once again pounded Philadelphia,
10-2, in the middle test of a three-game interleague set from Fenway Park.
Nava jo
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.
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